BP Sees Steady Demand for Oil, Gas in Short Term
The supermajor’s Energy Outlook 2025 suggests geopolitical fragmentation could tilt the balance of the energy trilemma toward energy security and away from sustainability.
Read full article: JPT Journal of Petroleum Technology
September 29, 2025
By Jennifer Pallanich
Oil is expected to see steady demand over the next decade regardless of which path the world takes, while natural gas demand will depend on the speed of the energy transition, according to the BP Energy Outlook 2025. The report outlines two possible pathways for the next 25 years: the Current Trajectory and the Below 2°C scenario.
In both scenarios, oil remains crucial in the short term, though its use is projected to shift from transportation toward feedstocks for petrochemicals. Natural gas demand will likely stay strong throughout the next decade before diverging, rising under the Current Trajectory and declining under the Below 2°C path as decarbonization efforts intensify.
The report also highlights three major challenges to the energy transition: geopolitical fragmentation, energy security concerns, and declining energy efficiency gains. According to Spencer Dale, BP's chief economist, “A shift to greater self-reliance might dampen the growth of international trade as countries move their supply chains back home or restrict them to politically stable or aligned regions.” He noted that this could lead to weaker economic growth first and lower energy demand afterward.
